Monday 29 April 2019

Afghan Peace Talks: US-China-Russia

Recently, a trilateral meeting among US, China, and Russia was held in Moscow. The aim of this meeting was to draw consensus on the Afghan Peace process.

According to a media note issued by the US State Department: Representatives of the United States, China, and Russia met in Moscow on April 25, 2019, and exchanged views on the current status of the Afghan peace process.

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Friday 26 April 2019

India’s ASAT Test

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a televised address on March 27 to announce the successful conduct of India’s anti-satellite (ASAT) missile test. The test targeted and destroyed one of India’s own satellites operating in the low-Earth orbit (LEO). The exercise dubbed Mission Shakti achieved all of its objectives, and is believed to mark the advent of India’s “new space age”.

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The Muller Report: Possibility of Trump’s Impeachment

It has been two years in the making but the Muller report is finally here. Special Counsel Robert Muller, the former FBI Director and lawyer selected to probe allegations of collusion within the Trump campaign and the Russian government during the 2016 elections, finally handed in his much awaited report to the Department of Justice on 22 March. While the question of Russian collusion was the initial focus of the report, due to the evident attempts by the White House to influence the investigation, a charge of Obstruction of Justice was also added to the scope of the inquiry.

As a Special Counsel for the Department of Justice, Muller initially submitted his final report to Attorney General William Barr. Barr, who was appointed to his position after Trump fired his predecessor Jeff Sessions in November of last year, promised to release the report in full, once his office had studied it in detail and redacted any sensitive information that was not meant for public eyes.

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Declining Fortunes

The Pak Rupee enjoyed an extended period of holding its value against the USD till 2017, when it traded at around Rs.105 against the Dollar. Come December 2017, the Rupee began its precipitous fall, which continues to this day with no apparent end in sight. In effect the Pak Rupee has lost over 35 per cent in value against the USD since 2017. This has translated directly into higher input costs for manufacturers, rising inflation levels, and higher debt servicing costs. The expected Export boost is still awaited with no appreciable rise to date, while efforts are underway to control imports and local purchases through higher regulatory duties and taxes. The effect is a rapidly contracting economy, with higher inflationary pressure, unemployment and declining levels of wealth – in a word Pakistan is firmly in a Stagflation phase.

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Tuesday 23 April 2019

Afghan Dialogue: A new stall

The two-day intra-Afghan dialogue was scheduled to be held on the 19thof April 2019 in Qatar. The talks were expected to assemble Afghan Taliban leaders and various Afghan politicians, tribal elders and civil society representatives, to forge a broad consensus on the political future of Afghanistan.

However, due to last minute disruptions the talks had to be postponed. According to reports quoting the Afghan government, the talks were cancelled owing to a disagreement by the Afghan Taliban over some of the attendees sanctioned by the Afghan Government. Whereas, the reports quoting the Afghan Taliban claim that the disruption occurred  due to the Afghan presidential palace’s sudden reference to the list of attendees as ‘official representatives of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’,—- even though it had been  agreed that the various representatives from Afghanistan would be participating in the talks in their personal capacity. There have been positive developments in the US-Afghan Taliban dialogue. Last month’s reports also revealed that the US- Taliban talks may soon agree on a timeline for a gradual US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in exchange for certain political pledges from the Afghan Taliban.

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Saturday 20 April 2019

Second Start

Some off-road vehicles have a feature called ‘second start’. You activate that when the vehicle is stuck and you need a burst of power and traction to extricate and continue. The PTI government just nine months into its five-year tenure has felt the need for a ‘second start’ type boost and has reshuffled key cabinet posts and inducted a bevy of technocrats to get out it of its difficulties and move forward.

To be fair to IK (Imran Khan) it must be noted that he had said that he would review performance and make changes if required. And he has done so. There was a clamor from financial and economic analysts criticizing the finance minister and asking for a change that could deliver. The financial and economic indicators were plummeting. So an experienced internationally known technocrat has been brought in to replace the finance minister. The health ministry needed to be rescued from policies that were sending drug prices sky-rocketing and pharmaceutical companies up in arms. So an internationally known and experienced technocrat is the new ‘Adviser’ on Health issues and the minister has been given another portfolio. It is the same story in the Petroleum and information ministries. The Interior ministry was with the Prime Minister himself with a minister of state handling it. Now an Interior minister has been appointed who is former military and his experience includes stints in the ISI, as Director General (DG) anti-narcotics, as the DG Intelligence Bureau and as Punjab’s Home Secretary—impressive credentials for an important job that includes implementing the National Action Plan (NAP). So the second start feature is fully activated.

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Unceremonious Exit

Eight months into power and the PTI-led government, under increasing pressure for its perceived underperformance, has decided on a major Cabinet reshuffle. The opening batsman, Mr. Asad Umar – the most powerful Minister after the Prime Minister, has unceremoniously exited refusing to be a part of the reshuffled Cabinet. A major blow for the PTI as they have now lost Mr. Jehangir Tareen, Mr. Aleem Khan and Mr. Asad Umar within their governing team – none of them hold any portfolio. The tall claims of the PTI leadership in their pre-election rhetoric is coming back to haunt them as they traverse the difficult political terrain. The constant U-turns and dithering policy making is costing them in terms of a support base that is starting to question their ability to effectively govern and deliver. The Prime Minister, unfortunately was unable to cobble together a professionally competent team from the outset and a re-shuffling of the same is unlikely to bring about any real change. Perhaps, Mr. Asad Umar made a wise decision in exiting the Cabinet and refusing a reshuffled slot, given his experience in managing the Ministry over the last eight months. There is a lot of speculation around the unceremonious exit of Mr. Asad Umar, and it is best not to delve into that and move towards the future as time is of the essence.

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